Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.664751 3.974940 4.315443 4.720110 5.192160 5.730833 6.400090
2025-01-26 3.280752 3.696518 4.184293 4.809894 5.608372 6.619879 8.046144
2025-02-02 3.095014 3.583292 4.184687 5.002649 6.126377 7.686872 10.173021
2025-02-09 2.932406 3.464854 4.145463 5.115358 6.532178 8.666949 12.495699
2025-02-16 2.743852 3.288056 4.002061 5.054443 6.664352 9.251977 14.389056
2025-02-23 2.595176 3.147286 3.888039 5.012662 6.806539 9.871898 16.621431
2025-03-02 2.466005 3.020720 3.779166 4.960449 6.915907 10.452037 19.083752
2025-03-09 2.354643 2.909518 3.680854 4.909913 7.014687 11.031427 21.928430
2025-03-16 2.268158 2.826446 3.615212 4.900882 7.180112 11.785288 25.889999
2025-03-23 2.214863 2.786113 3.608001 4.982801 7.520899 13.020581 32.875753
2025-03-30 2.122667 2.684214 3.500449 4.886136 7.505656 13.428129 37.300500
2025-04-06 2.034747 2.584065 3.389231 4.772912 7.441082 13.698432 41.640083
2025-04-13 1.937969 2.468165 3.249644 4.603674 7.250113 13.616209 44.280533
2025-04-20 1.906599 2.447347 3.256807 4.691958 7.607192 15.167704 62.014127
2025-04-27 1.897675 2.459001 3.315181 4.876936 8.209031 17.777807 109.421683
2025-05-04 1.873117 2.445337 3.331261 4.984942 8.661133 20.226132 213.176180
2025-05-11 1.818592 2.383047 3.263555 4.926581 8.703678 21.195556 343.305183
2025-05-18 1.771080 2.329664 3.207764 4.886541 8.786210 22.405295 734.629182
2025-05-25 1.724796 2.276381 3.149378 4.836490 8.835669 23.530457 2850.707634
2025-06-01 1.681581 2.226315 3.093988 4.788033 8.882551 24.708802 NaN
2025-06-08 1.647628 2.189611 3.059580 4.779371 9.037320 26.603518 NaN
2025-06-15 1.629821 2.177780 3.067232 4.857918 9.454025 30.484314 NaN
2025-06-22 1.585716 2.122289 2.996174 4.765228 9.356232 31.074938 NaN